"Will Social Security Be There for Me?"
A Straightforward Look at the Uncertainty of Social Security
One of the most common questions I get from younger farmers at conferences is: "Will Social Security even be around when I retire?" Or: "Why am I putting money into a system I’ll never benefit from?" And I always respond the same — I say “Oh, look, I’m late for the blueberry trellising workshop”.
Many Gen Z and Millenial farmers feel that the financial deck has been stacked against them. It’s important to honor that feeling and recognize how it underpins their financial attitudes and behaviors. And it can be hard to justify the costs of a safety net to a society that hasn’t done much for them lately.
Still, I really shouldn’t run off to my blueberry workshop. And I shouldn’t be telling people “Social Security has been tweaked before but has always survived”. That feels a lot like telling nervous investors that the stock market has historically returned 8-10% annually. It might be true, but it doesn't settle the deeper anxieties about a system that feels fragile, opaque, or straight-up rigged.
People don’t want a history lesson—they want to know “What are my options in the future if things go terribly, terribly wrong?”
The Role of Social Security
First, let’s quickly break down what Social Security is and why it matters.
Without Social Security, millions of older Americans would likely fall into poverty. It’s a basic social safety net that keeps people off the street, plain and simple.
Where Your Today Dollars Are Going
The money you pay through payroll or self-employment taxes goes into two trust funds — one pays retirement and survivor benefits and the other pays disability benefits.
The trust funds are legally required to be invested in U.S. Treasury securities. These are essentially government bonds that are only available to the Social Security system. They earn interest backed by the U.S. government. The money is used to pay today’s beneficiaries, and any excess is loaned to the federal government in exchange for Treasury bonds.
This conservative approach is one of the primary criticisms of Social Security. Historically, annual returns are about 2% above inflation. Not that great long-term (S&P 500 is just shy of 7% by the same measure). Then again, maybe some overambitious people will guide us to a painful rediscovery of why it was set up that way in the first place.
How You Earn Benefits
As you work, you earn "credits" or "quarters" based on your income. You need 40 credits (about 10 years of work) to qualify for retirement benefits.
Your benefit is calculated using your highest 35 years of earnings (adjusted for inflation).
Payouts are based on a formula that replaces a percentage of your average wages—favoring lower earners.
The full retirement age is currently between 66 and 67, depending on when you were born.
What Would Social Security Pay You Today?
Let’s run three rough examples based on current formulas (2025 estimates):
Person A: Low income, earning $0 - $50k/year for 35 years
→ Benefit: Roughly $1,200 - $1,400/month
Person B: Middle income, earning $50k - $150k/year for 35 years
→ Benefit: Roughly $2,000 - $2,500/month
Person C: High income, earning $150k+ for 35 years
→ Benefit: Around $3,600/month (this is near the max benefit)
And remember: these numbers could/might/will shift. So what do these numbers tell us?
It's a Safety Net, Not a Full Retirement Plan
For most people—especially low- to middle-income earners—Social Security alone isn’t enough to live on. In the above example, contributions for the lowest earners garners a benefit around 100% of Federal Poverty Level ($15,650 for a single person in 2025).
So if you and a spouse are running a business with all its up and downs for 30+ years, your combined social security income benefit may still fall way short of covering essential living expenses, let alone allowing you to thrive.
What Happens Next? 3 Future Scenarios
Here’s where things get, ahem, interesting. Social Security will likely change—but how? Here are three realistic scenarios and what you can do now to protect yourself:
Scenario 1: The System Survives, But Changes (Most Likely)
They tweak the formula, raise the full retirement age, cut benefits slightly, or (hey!) remove the cap on how much higher earners pay into the system. Your benefits may decrease, but the system stays intact.
What to do now:
Request your full earnings record from SSA and download it annually. Do you trust the government to perfectly track your contributions for 40+ years? Neither do I.
Start contributing to retirement accounts today. Diversify your sources of retirement income outside of Social Security.
Scenario 2: Partial Privatization (Could Happen)
Social Security gets partially privatized. Your contributions start funneling into some form of individual investment account (think: personal IRA-style system).
What to do now:
Get your earnings history now, from SSA and the IRS.
Increase your savings rate and invest in retirement accounts, so you’re used to handling investments long before you might be forced to.
Scenario 3: The Worst-Case (Unlikely But Possible)
They gut the system, your contributions vanish into the abyss, and you’re left holding the bag.
What to do now:
Protect yourself by downloading and backing up all your SSA records regularly.
Take retirement savings seriously today. Compound interest needs time to work, and you'll want your own retirement income ready just in case.
No Matter What, Take Control
No matter which scenario plays out, you should do the same things regardless:
Keep filing your taxes and paying in. Don’t abandon the system outright—it’s still the law, and there could be some benefit later.
Protect yourself. Get all of your documentation, keep track of you what you are paying in. Hold the government accountable, at the very least in this regard.
Plan For the Worst. Prioritize saving for the future on your own terms.
How to Gather Your Records
Here’s what you can (and should) pull from ssa.gov:
Your full earnings record
Your estimated benefits statement
Your contributions history
Annual Social Security statements
You can also request certain documents by mail, like a certified copy of your earnings record if you need hard copies for your personal files.
The Retirement Accounts Playbook: Why You Need All Three
Financial advisors love to push tax-deferred accounts like Traditional IRAs. But you’re entering a decades-long partnership with the government anytime you put money into these vehicles.
Traditional IRAs: You defer taxes now, but pay when you withdraw (take a distribution) at whatever future tax rates exist. And Congress can change rules around Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) and penalties.
Roth IRAs: You pay taxes now, and in theory, you get tax-free growth and withdrawals later. Politically, it might be harder to unwind Roth rules, but never say never.
Brokerage Accounts: You’ve already paid taxes on the money going in, you’ll pay taxes on dividends and interest along the way, and you’ll pay capital gains taxes when you sell. Not as tax-efficient, but it is more independent, flexible and liquid. (You’re still bound by the rules the IRS sets on capital gains rates.)
Diversify across all three. Build wealth wherever you can. The surest way to hedge against Social Security changes—or any institutional instability—is to grow your own assets over time. In an uncertain world, wealth is one of the few durable forms of security.
You’ve built something meaningful. Let’s make sure your finances help it thrive—reach out today.
